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Technology Stocks : 3DFX

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To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (3998)6/16/1998 1:21:00 AM
From: Matt Webster  Read Replies (2) of 16960
 
Pierre, I think you are wrong when you say there are no "productivity" applications for 3D. Simulations for training purposes are "productivity" enhancing, in the sense that when the pilot does not crash the plane, its passengers' productivity receives a boost. Similarly, for driving simulators.

Beyond, simulators, there is a market for "modeling," by which I mean computer-simulated reality. This is seen in motion pictures in the form of CGI animation and even full length films like Toy Story. 3D acceleration technology is central to this market. As the technology improves to the point where we are doing multi-megapixel renderings in 60fps, the distinction between reality and the detailed textures of polygon-based simulation will disappear. This is a "productivity" application, albeit a niche one.

In the end, I think your criticism is unfair. It is too easy to conflate mainstream productivity with "important" or "profitable." Since 1980, most people have used the computer only for word processing, spreadsheets and other mundane tasks that do not require 3D. It will remain this way into the future, because, surprise, our society has a legacy of being primarily textual. To denigrate TDFX's future because of this is a tenuous proposition.

Not to babble on, but TDFX is probably at the center of the "user interface of the future." Obviously, we are not going to use the first person world of Quake II as a replacement for Windows folder-file-document metaphor. That would be inefficient. BUT, there are opportunities to adapt the traditional user interface to make it more natural. I believe this because I have extensive experience training people in your basic productivity applications. It is difficult to train an 80 year old man to walk through a multi-step authentication process, because he has no reference from Windows. However, if you explain it as entering a car, which requires a key, then inserting the key into the ignition, it makes more sense. There will be applications, probably concentrated at first in the training of kids and senior citizens, that rely on 3D as part of the user interface. Home Worlds are the first crude attempts at this, but are constrained by our current Windows-centric mode of thinking. As the computer becomes a more ubiquitous part of society, this will change and more natural interfaces like speech and "world navigation" will become more prevalent. TDFX may be one of the pioneers in this market, even if they don't realize it yet.

So, to conclude, I have provided three applications for 3D technology that are not games. First, simulation-based education and training. Second, the graphic design applications of computer-aided design, manufacturing and of the entertainment industries. Third, next generation user interfaces. Does anyone have any further comments on my vision, particularly the third point? Please share.

Matt

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