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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks
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To: Leo J. Bourne who wrote (10089)6/16/1998 11:27:00 AM
From: Oeconomicus  Read Replies (2) of 18691
 
Leo, not that it matters (at least not to those buying it), but here
are the Robby Stephens numbers on AMZN.

Revenues EPS "OperEPS"
'98Q2 $103 ($.49) ($.38)
'98Q3 $105 ($.44) ($.29)
'98Q4 $146 ($.39) ($.25)
1998 $441 ($1.53) ($1.12)
'99Q1 $152 ($.34) ($.20)
'99Q2 $156 ($.31) ($.17)
'99Q3 $157 ($.30) ($.16)
'99Q4 $192 ($.21) ($.07)
1999 $657 ($1.17) ($.61)
2000 $830 $.06 $.23
2001 $992 $.88 $.88

"Operating EPS" excludes amortization expense, presumably related to
recent acquisitions (hey, it's not like it's cash... oh, wait... it's
not cash then, but it is now). The turn to profitability that they
expect is based on cutting all their operating expense ratios
basically in half. Marketing and sales expenses, for example, are
assumed to drop from 22% this year (26% last year) to 9.9% in 2001. In
other words, they will spend no more actual dollars in 2001 than they
do today.

BTW, these numbers were revised on 5/28 (then on 6/3 only to adjust
for the split) bumping up revenue numbers for all years by an average
of about 8% from previous estimates. At the same time, EPS was revised
downward by about 8% for '98-'99 while 2000 and 2001 were revised
upward by 500% and 35% respectively.

The upward revisions for 2000 and 2001 were used to justify upgrading
the stock to a buy even though it was already trading at their $44
price target.

Go figure.

Bob
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