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Technology Stocks : 3DFX
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To: Pierre-X who wrote (4004)6/16/1998 12:14:00 PM
From: Chip Anderson  Read Replies (1) of 16960
 
The question is: Are you serious PX?

Any serious long-term investor in TDFX should be considering the impact of a "child-violence" backlash on Voodoo sales. Let me spell it out for you:

- TDFX is all about making gaming as realistic as possible.
- The majority of popular 3D games right now are violent first person shooters. The next generation of games will expand on this trend towards ultra-realism.
- Banshee and Voodoo are trying to breakout of the "hardcore gaming niche" and into mainstream markets.

OK, now imagine that between now and Christmas, this "child-violence" thing gets out of hand and becomes the next poster-child issue in the media. Worst case scenario: the politicians use it as a big campaign issue in the fall elections. It would have a serious impact on Christmas sales of games and 3D add-in cards to the mainstream market.

The PC gaming industry is _very_ exposed to this issue. Consider a worse worst case scenario: a politically correct boycott starts and sales of violent games begin to fall causing some game publishers to go out of business (these companies are highly leveraged folks) and the others to cut back on large, risky game titles - the kind which currently push the envelop and need TDFX cards to run well.

This sales risk to TDFX, while hard to quantify, is very real. Am I predicting that it will happen? No. However, as a serious TDFX investor, I intend to track the level of media coverage of this issue over the next couple of months to see if it increases or (hopefully) wanes. I also intend to do much more research into non-violent games. Let me know if you'd like me to share what I discover.

Chip
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