Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Oeconomicus who wrote (10092)	6/16/1998 2:53:00 PM
From: Leo J. Bourne	Read Replies (2) of 18691

So maybe longer is better for AMZN? It is definite that marketing expenses will fall, because AMZN is very actively advertising right now all over the web and probably elsewhere as well. That level of funding can certainly diminish as a proportion of sales as brand recognition catches hold and repeat customers are locked in. I use AMZN myself, and am very well satisfied with the service. The only question is whether there is more money to be made on the upside or downside. I can't believe the market is willing to wait three years just to see a P/E of over 50, particularly when someone could pre-empt the AMZN play by simply calling a new company an associatively linked name that would rake in most of the advertising benefits. "If you liked Amazon, you'll love Gladiator" or some such jingle. I have not looked into the competitors on the web, but perhaps that is where DD might uncover some interesting trends. Unfortunately, it may be more difficult to unearth the web-related portion of the earnings of a less specialized bookseller. Meanwhile, it looks like people are still being sucked into the bubble. I hope for their sake it lasts. I am certainly tempted to short if it gets much higher.

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