Any projections on what the effect of options expiration will be? There are really amazing quantities in open interest. Will these people take their stock and hold looking for a better price, or will they sell to capture any profits as usual? Will this deluge of sales crash the market on Monday?
Second thought, with NT trading around 52 1/4 now, how hard would it be to bust the price under 50 and kill 21419 options for BAY June 30 calls? Would they even need to? The Bay price is already discounted and trading at 30 1/8 even though the actual conversion would be 31.35. If short sellers were to try to break NT down below this point, will they start covering next week?
At the same time, if you were short BAY, when would you take profits? If short sellers were to cover on or before Friday, they might push the price up. In fact, if they were scared that NT would actually recover, they might even bid the price up above .6 x NT for a short period.
I'd say your chance of making any money on a June 30 call is getting very slim.
Anyway, $38 looks pretty good now, too bad it'll never happen.
Regards,
Mark |
