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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 220.66+1.6%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Walter High who wrote (6204)6/16/1998 3:16:00 PM
From: Tom D  Read Replies (3) of 164684
 
Walter, I am thinking along the same lines as you.

If mgmt does another 2 for 1 split, the losses on a per share basis are cut in half again. AMZN must show sequential revenue increases each quarter. If they can get 5.2 million visits in June according to Relevant Knowledge's way of making estimates, and if purchases are proportional to visits, then Q2 would show a 20% increase in revenues over Q1. This would be impressive given BKS aggressive advertising campaign through most of Q2.

The issue with the markets peculiar valuation of this company is, what are the potential catalysts for significant changes in price--upwards or downwards? On the upside it would be another stock split, or announcing online video sales. On the downside it would be lower revenue growth than expected. I think it looks like they may well be able to handle the revenue growth through Q2. JMHO. The basis for evaluating Q2 revenues is Q1 revenues. Look at the RK data for January, 1998--a very small # of visits that month (<2.4 million). So its not hard to show growth over that base.

I bought at the equivalent of about $12 per share and through lots of luck have not sold. (I am painfully aware that I lost a lot of money last year, so I have no delusions of superiority when it comes to investing.) I'll let this ride some more.

Best wishes to all, long and short,
Tom D
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