Strongly optimistic? Hey, that's me. This is so much fun. Politics, geopolitics, international capital, tribalism [us versus the Japanese with their stereotypes in profusion], IPR battles with Ericsson and the thread as shrink.
Ramsey, you have completely turned into a geopolitical politician. Now, do you blame me or do you now realize that Qualcomm is a little entity inside a globalized humanoid circus and investors in the Mighty-Q better understand the big picture[no apologies to Compaq - trademark infringing arseaboutface Q-Thieves]? I hope Qualcomm registers q.com pretty soon. Maybe I'd better do it. Oops, just checked it and somebody has it.
Anyway, back to what many seem to think is more important = New Zealand's and other Asian economies.
Sure enough, there is a recession here and of course anywhere which doesn't function as an economic island - even Albania and North Korea now are dependent on outsiders - is going to have a drop in economic activity. No more trips to Las Vegas casinos by Oil Sheiks with oil at the lowest real US$ price since 1970, which means it has never been cheaper. No more Disneyland or Southern Alps jaunts by South Koreans who have to stay home, buy a cdmaOne handset and get back to work selling really cheap Hyundais and cdmaOne handsets to the USA, Japan and everywhere. No more jaunty shopping trips to The Warehouse by Kiwis to buy cheap, high quality electronics, dehumidifiers and everything else Made in China = it's back to planting trees and fleecing sheep.
So I won't pretend that plenty of people's economic interests haven't been severely damaged, but there is a tendency to think it is all out pandemonium and financial collapse. It's a matter of having invested in the right stocks which will do well despite the problems. I like free flow of money around the world to rebalance debts and keep production going. And it is happening. With governments printing flat out to ensure liquidity. If there's one thing that is international conventional political wisdom now it is that liquidity must be kept up - the other is that free trade is essential. [ie no replay of trade barriers to "protect" indigenous production]. Of course not everyone thinks that, but most people in any kind of political or other powerful position have some inkling of it.
Sure there is a bit of a crunch, but no worries overall and surely not a worldwide economic depression and collapse. The Japanese are now rich and older, so they are resting on the oars and spending a few of the trillions of US$ they've accumulated over the decades while the average American was spending like there was no tomorrow and borrowing to do it if their own money ran low. Sure, they've also got a S&L scale asset backing failure but that will be resolved much like the USA = steal from taxpayers by printing money, inflating the currency [which still ends up as a deflation because of productivity gains, economic malaise and all that worrying stuff].
Since everything is so cheap, I'm going shopping! Let's see, cars are cheap [but just bought a couple of those], air travel is cheap and so is fuel, Qualcomm is cheap, but I've got heaps of those and might as well spend up large while everyone has gone back to work, I think I'll buy a cdmaOne network - they should be on special now that Samsung has had a pay cut. Heck, all you people with cash on the side should be Happy as Larry [local idiom].
Those with extensive margin accounts or debts sailing on the edge are in trouble. Better apply now for a job selling cdmaOne handsets.
Also, I've decided the answer to the question "is debt soft on the outside but crunchy in the centre or like marshmallow in the centre?" is that it is hard in the centre, meaning there are plenty of people like Bill Gates, Ramsey and co who have money sitting waiting.
Okay, that's the optimistic side. Buy buy buy! New Paradigm RULZ OK! Mighty-Q heading for $100 [yes, yes, I know it touched $46 but stockmarkets are for buying the future]. No international collapse. Dow 16000 Feb 2002. India dumping socialism as has China. The wireless world is booming.
What a wonderful world! [Store this post Tero...so you can genuflect to my soothsaying wisdom again next year].
Mqurice |
