The problem with S3, Matrox, and Nvidia is that they do not innovate. 3DFX created the PC-3D phenomena through genius and hard work. What did S3 do to promote 3D in the early days? Matrox? Nvidia? Nothing. S3, in fact, discouraged thousands from buying 3D accelerators when they released the horrendous Virge decelerator. Until VooDoo I was in production long enough to be **studied and cloned**, none of 3DFX's competitors produced any noteworthy 3D accelerators.
Given these facts, it is relatively obvious that Nvidia, AMD, and S3 simply copied 3DFX's innovations after reverse engineering VooDoo I. In the future, it is unlikely those companies will innovate. At best, they can try to recover their shattered reputations in 3D and build some brand loyalty with naive new buyers. I think buyers are smart enough, however, to realize that the only company presently worth anything in PC-3D is 3DFX. The proof of that was Christmas 1997; a stunning success for 3DFX despite strong competition.
The situation is IMHO analogous to Intel v/ Cyrix and AMD. The public realizes Intel is the innovator and respects the Intel brand. Until Cyrix and AMD release a product with backward compatibility and more than incrementally superior performance to Intel's last major chip they have little chance of capturing major share. I say until S3, Matrox, and Nvidia achieve the same in 3D they will also remain in the passenger seat. Presently, with VooDoo II shipping, TDFX is dominating PC 3D. The momentum VooDoo II is building today will not suddenly be halted by a few new releases with comparable, incrementally better, or inferior performance.
The only way 3DFX can die is if they stagnate technologically or PC gamers lose their insatiable appetite for better performance. At present neither seems a significant risk factor. No competitor is releasing a fundamental breakthrough, Voodoo 2 is the fastest card shipping, and 3DFX has the best name brand recognition. 3DFX wins for now. Plain and simple. |
