Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 341.36

+1.3%

3:59 PM EST

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To: stockycd who wrote (20485)	6/17/1998 7:38:00 AM
From: Dr. Bob	Read Replies (3) of 70976

"Then its off to the races by fall". I'm surprised at the optimism. What will drive the new buying? Overcapacity remains, and existing capacity can still be upgraded pretty cheaply. 300 mm isn't going to happen anytime soon. Announcements of new fabs are conspicuous by their absence. Asia has not addressed their fiscal problems. I think we'll be bumping along the bottom for quite some time, although false rallies based on hopes, not fundamentals, may occur from time to time. "Off to the races" will have to wait for the inflection point for 300 mm fabs, which will require financial stability in Asia OR full utilization of existing capacity, PLUS a qualified tool set, and I can't see that happening before sometime in 1999, probably second half, based on what I read. That makes early 1999 a more likely time for the sustainable upturn to start, IMO. Bob

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