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Technology Stocks : Silicon Valley Group
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To: LLCF who wrote (1679)6/17/1998 10:31:00 AM
From: David Aegis  Read Replies (1) of 2946
 
Re: SVGL's lead. My two cents. It is my (layman's) understanding that the competition (ASMLF, Canon, Nikon) is waiting for Cymer to do a laser upgrade. SVGL's optics are currently an advantage, since SVG has the only production proven scanner using Cymer's current generation laser. My notes are that the next generation laser is due out this Fall. With prototyping, build lead times and qualification, I am guessing SVGL still has about a 12-18 month lead. The Cymer thread is a good source of information on this topic.

The question then, in my mind, is whether the up cycle kicks in within that time frame, or whether competition catches up first. If competition catches up, then we have to hope that demand is strong enough to absorb everyone's capacity and that SVGL can resolve its cycle time woes. I also remain cautiously optimistic about the Thermco and Track divisions. I do not think they will just dry up and blow away.

Remember when the key question about SVG was whether they could ramp Micrascans fast enough...? <sigh>

--David
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