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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: yard_man who wrote (20573)6/17/1998 1:25:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Can some tell me why the SOXX is off over 2%, and RE > Charts don't lie about history. << if they are index charts they do lie.

They are constantly revised , laggards dropped out,
& new runners brought in. ..I lost count of the changes in the DOW,
components over the years , been a big bunch.

Not only do they drop issues out of the S&P they re-weight it, the
up momentum stocks keep getting more weight..all this enhances
the indexes, but if you subtract the drop outs, and stop the
re-weighting you would see the truth. And it is not as rosy
as they would have you believe.
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That's the problem with TA on an index , it's only good short
term..the inside of the index is changing to fast to TA it
over a long period of time..IT JUST DON'T WORK..because
the indexes themselves are a slight of hand.
Short term you can do something with TA on them, but even going
back to just OCT97 , the S&P is no were near weighted like it was
then, even the DOW has changed since then.
So the TA of an index is not apples to apples.
The form I use compares indexes, and looks for divergence /
convergence between Indexes..or at the internals of the
index.
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On the 12th I saw a rally maybe to 1120..and pictured that as
the new resistance..I should have stuck with it.
If we don't break 1120, in a day or two..it's back down.
But again why is the SOXX off today ?
And BTW the AUX is up stronger than any of the rest of the market.
Jim
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