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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: mph who wrote (24328)6/17/1998 8:44:00 PM
From: waverider  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
Popping back for a visit again after hearing oil was going to reach new highs again from the media. :)

FWIW, the long term picture of a weak Yen, failing Asian economies and a continuing oil glut has not changed. I know the feelings around here are probably pretty raw now, but if I may add some observations...

There are a lot of new faces here. Many of the folks who weathered through the last 3 declines since October are gone. The comments I read now are EXACTLY the same as we used to throw out for every downdraft and head fake over the past 7 months. Naive optimism. The new blood seems to be repeating the same horrible mistakes that were made in the past. Be careful when fighting the trend, folks. The trend is down at the moment and we're going to have to be pretty nimble to make any money this year. Not to say long term investing is dead, but it has proved to be very costly to many of us. And speaking of long term, the sub $15 oil is going to cause our companies pain...it has lasted too long.

I finally ditched all my oil patchers about two weeks ago (except for MIND) as well as my Fidelity Select Energy Services Fund so take my opinions for what they are worth. This craziness of depending on wackos in the Middle East and commodity fluctuations (not company fundamentals) to determine the market worth of our portfolios is nuts. Tread carefully.

<H>
short INTC and MU
(and some oil patchers again if this rally continues)
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