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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?
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To: Ghassan I. Ghandour who wrote (5313)11/27/1996 9:06:00 AM
From: dwight vickers   of 42771
 
Ghassan,

I agree with the positive approach that you and Salah are taking. I have the benefit of not suffering the long downward slide and looking at this strictly as a turnaround investment and not so much regarding its prospective strategy and technology vs. MSFT.

Having played many turnaround stocks over the years it is very positive when a companies earnings turn flat or positive on lower revenue. Means they have gotten costs under control. The next step is revenues flatten, then grow, with earnings exploding.

The growth in Intranetware and other engines for the future, is the logic for better revenue numbers to come.

Early date for earnings is curious, as is quiet on the CEO front. But they seem less consequential to me. New CEO may only have to not screw up to be successful..

The runup in the stock price price may have simply been that the numbers just released became clear within the company, and were made known to friendly money management types. I know that's illegal, but it happens every day and is winked at by the SEC. I think a friendly takeover is not in the works, as of now. Hostile rumors coming to the companies attention would explain a lot of this.

The detailed numbers still are important. If they held out costs, or threw some extra things in, outside of their normal pattern, will be very telling as to what we can expect in the future. Someone very good at balance sheets, and familiar with Novells habits should be able to tell.

Dwight
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