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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (210)6/18/1998 9:12:00 AM
From: Mark Myword  Read Replies (1) of 3536
 
>> re: Japan:This process works as long as new vehicles and credit can be created. The problem has been the risk takers themselves do not know the risks. What they will lack in the moment of truth is **Liquidity**<<
Chip - good post, lot of truth in what you say. That's why I feel the yen is going much lower eventually, because they will have to provide liquidity and inflate the bad assets.
The intervention yesterday was , IMO , a desperation strike to quell the rising tide of pessimism and awareness of the gravity of Japan's mess. It is a stopgap to buy some time and prevent a quick unravelling of the Asian economy.
The heavily-ingrained Japanese propensity toward isolationism, old-boy networks of business and financial profiteers, and sheer pride in their own "economic invincibility" will be extremely difficult to crack, and I think we'll see another disappointment as a result of all this. I hope Rubin doesn't throw too much of our tax money at it - we owe Japan no favors.
Hashimoto is just an expendable pawn, even his own people think he's worthless , so he may soon be out. After all, the usual pattern is to fire the scapegoat and bring in a new face, which then is "given a chance" to effect reform. I doubt real change is in the cards; the bureaucrats most likely think this is just another storm to weather.
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