To all ORCL longs,
Could somebody who knows the business from the inside look at some of these predictions by the Seybold Group and present some counterpoints. I'm trying to decide whether or not to take some ORCL profits off the table in the near term and would appreciate some truly knowledgeable technical insights. The writer appears to make some sound fundamental arguments against ORCL.
Many regards,
Craig A. Anderson
xcitfan@mailexcite.com
THE PULSE - 1998 Predictions
by Wayne W. Eckerson
Patricia Seybold Group
Here are ten trends that will emerge in 1998. If you disagree, or if you want to add your own, send me an e-mail. We'll include your comments in our Web discussion area.
1. Microsoft Dominates Data Warehousing. Why? Read predictions 2, 3, 4, and 5 below.
2. Microsoft SQLÿServer 7.0 Dominates Data Marts. With embedded data warehouse services (transformation, replication, and OLAP), enhanced scalability (parallel query, improved SMP support), and bargain-basement prices, SQLÿServer 7.0 will quickly become the de facto standard on which to build data marts. And, since data marts grow into data warehouses, we expect Microsoft to eventually own a big chunk of the data warehouse market.
3. Microsoft SQLÿServer 7.0 Dominates OLAP. Version 7.0, which will be announced later this month, appears to embed a robust hybrid OLAP server, similar to Speedware's Media/R product, which will force almost all OLAP server vendors out of business or into niche markets. The only OLAP server survivors will be Arbor Software and Oracle's OLAP Division.
Expect Microsoft to keep enhancing its OLAP server (just as it will keep scaling its relational server), forcing Arbor and Oracle to 1) drive prices down and/or 2) keep adding more functions that appeal to a narrower market of high-end users. Finally, client OLAP vendors should beware lest Microsoft ever makes a simplified Web version of Excel designed to enhance OLAP navigation and calculation.
4. OLE DB Takes Off. Microsoft's new data access standard, OLE DB, as well its extension for OLAP (OLE DB for OLAP), will become de facto data access standards. Just as Microsoft co-opted the SQL Access Group's data access interfaces with ODBC, so has Microsoft co-opted the OLAP Consortium's multidimensional API with OLE DB for OLAP.
5. Microsoft Establishes Data Warehouse Metadata Standard. By providing badly needed leadership in the metadata space, Microsoft is poised to set standards for metadata integration, which is key to providing seamless integration of data warehouse components. The Microsoft Repository, with its underlying OIM metamodel, will be fleshed out this year for data-oriented applications. More important, many companies will begin writing advanced metadata integration functions on top of the COM interfaces specified by the Microsoft Repository.
6. Web Reporting Takes Off. Companies will deploy both static and dynamic reports over the Web in droves. Why? IT managers will insist on it because the Web significantly lessens administration, maintenance, and support costs. Leaders in this space will be AlphaBlox, Brio Technology, Business Objects, Infospace, Information Builders, Seagate, SQRIBE Technologies, and Zanza. Conversely, we expect much slower ramp-up for ad hoc query and OLAP functionality over the Web.
7. Companies Will Integrate Packaged Applications with Data Warehouses. Companies will be looking for ways to integrate their two largest IT initiatives (besides Year 2000 projects), which are data warehouses and packaged applications. Unfortunately, too many companies will buy a data warehouse from a packaged-application vendor when they should exploit a data warehouse as a neutral vehicle for integrating diverse sets of applications, including packages and homegrown programs.
8. 7x24 Availability Becomes Critical. Four trends will converge in 1998 to make 7x24 availability a critical issue: 1) Companies will deploy global data warehouses, which will prevent administrators from shutting down the data warehouse to load data. 2) Companies will begin to load data warehouses on a daily or more frequent basis. 3) End users will begin directly updating the data warehouse as part of specific applications. 4) End-user organizations will request service-level agreements that impose penalties on the IT department for unexpected downtimes.
These high-availability demands will require administrators to shorten load times by implementing change data capture processes. Administrators will also look to deploy databases that support partitioned updates and possess a high degree of reliability. Administrators will also look for management utilities that help predict and prevent outages and tune data warehouse performance. Expect the following vendors to build momentum in the data warehouse management space: Hewlett-Packard, NCR, Pine Cone Software, and Teleran.
9. Turnkey Decision Support Systems Debut. As the data warehouse market matures and more conservative (i.e., technology-lagging) companies deploy data warehouses, there will be a larger need for all-in-one solutions, or what I call Turnkey Decision Support Systems (DSSs). These systems will provide a completely integrated package of components and services that can be deployed quickly and inexpensively. In most cases, these Turnkey DSSs will consist of components from a single company. Major players here are Broadbase, Microsoft, MineShare, and Sagent Technology.
10. Information Marketplaces Debut. The Information Marketplace provides end-users with one-stop shopping for any information object they desire. Users are shielded from having to know where the object is located and what program was used to create it. The Information Marketplace will use a publish-and-subscribe mechanism to let users shop for objects. Behind the scenes, a scalable engine and metadata repository will integrate with a variety of back-end systems and third-party decision support products to deliver the dynamic objects on demand. Leading vendors here are SQRIBE Technologies, VIT, Infospace, and Influence Software.
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This article is a reprint from the January 7, 1998 issue of The Pulse from Patricia Seybold Group's Business Intelligence & Data Warehouse Service. It has been reproduced here as originally published.
c 1998 by Patricia Seybold Group, 85 Devonshire Street, 5th Floor, Boston, Massachusetts 02109-3504. Telephone 617.742.5200, Fax 617.742.1028, Internet: psgroup.com. Reproduction in whole or part is prohibited. For reprint information, call 617.742.5200. |
