Yeah, definitely, I have thoughts. The analyst is David Molowa. He's OK, but he loses perspective when he starts to drool over Vertex, a company that I also admire. From what has been made public (an incidence of diarrhea of about 20%), the side effect profile of Viracept is a reason to buy AGPH, rather than to avoid it. We'll know more, of course, after release of phase III results. AGPH IR says that the loose stools can be controlled.
Number two........ if Viracept is superior, AIDS activists will make sure that it gets its share of market penetration. VRTX may have Glaxo, but that just means that they'll have to share the bucks. With Japan Tobacco, AGPH has the U.S. market all to itself. Yup, AGPH will need to battle the efforts of Merck, Glaxo, Abbott and Roche. However, in this situation, the best molecule wins decent market share, IMO. Most effective and most convenient to take? The data doesn't support this. He's been talking for a long time about the blood brain barrier, but Viracept also appears to pass such, and I think it's premature to say how much is enough.
Just my $0.02. But, hey, this is a risky investment. Bad news hands you AGPH at 50% of this market cap, easy. I wouldn't bet the farm.
Rick |
