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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (210)	6/18/1998 9:36:00 AM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (2) of 3536

Chip, I think your analysis is pretty good and worry about the implications. I think it is a bit extreme to say Japan is bankrupt but they certainly face the prospect of having to write off a significant portion of their wealth. At this point I believe we can not yet tell which way the system will move. Left to their own devices the markets would eventually force the fire sale liquidation of Japanese and Asian assets. That is what the currency depreciation is all about. The question will be if a global policy mix can be found that will reliquefy the Asian markets without generating an even larger global asset bubble. This answer may be a bit quick and I will consider the situation more over the weekend. Right now I haven't decided what steps to take as it is not clear which way the system will swing. I suspect I'll be spending a lot of time monitoring the news for the next few weeks. Henry

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