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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

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Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (11622)	6/18/1998 10:11:00 AM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (2) of 152472

To Ramsey Su. Thank you for the link to the Atlantic Monthly article. Found it thorough and perceptive as best a non expert (me) could tell. Very persuasive. But my reaction is that while the article is very very strong on history and analysis of problems, it is less strong on prognosis for the future. No one knows the future of course - by definition. Perhaps my view is colored by some knowledge of the way the Japanese pulled themselves from the devastation of WWII to the economic powerhouse they are - 2nd in the world. While it is certainly true that the old ways and solutions will not work in this new closely linked world, I am less willing to assume the Japanese can not adapt to it. If there is one clear strong characteristic the Japanese have shown IMO, it is the ability to adapt, particularly to adversity. I see the situation as similar to trying to turn around a supertanker - not easy but possible. No doubt we will continue to differ on our view of the future but the interesting point is that we will find out in the real world - if I live long enough. :-) Once more, recognize that I am just offering an opinion based on my limited knowledge and somewhat stronger experience in economic development - mostly in the less developed world. I am not offering you a closely reasoned, carefully researched brief. So obviously all this needs to be taken (if at all) with large quantities of salt. Agree BTW that the best and only practical approach to any Asian discussion is by individual country - not Asia as a whole - too many differences among (and actually perhaps more importantly within) countries. Lets watch the CDMA One roll out in Japan over the next year and see how it goes. I suggest it will go surprisingly well - but then I am by nature an optimist. Thanks again. PS To me, China is much much more important than Japan in the next century and would much appreciate your current analysis and views on China - particularly any update you have to you past analyses which I have read and learned from as a lurker here for many moons. Note Shanghai CDMA "test" started June 14. Respect. Chaz

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