Jay, the keyword for evaluating all these Y2k plays is 'barriers to entry' ... in order to do that, you have to identify what the problem is and what the solution entails ...
I believe everybody has a fair grasp of the problem and the solution ... once the code is Y2K compliant, does it matter how it got to that state ... I could have changed the code, somebody else could have done it, or a conversion software could have done it ... but in this process, money flows around ... a consulting company can take a piece of the pie, about 5% of the gross service fees ,,, automated conversion softwares will have higher margins ... probably in the 10 to 20% range ... but once you realize the solution is fairly simple, then you will understand that there really isn't a barrier to entry for every software or consulting company to take a piece of the action ...
We've allocated about $10 million for the whole project at our site ... and conversion alone will probably cost from $1 to $2 million ... If we have to go with a software that will do the conversion, there will be 3 criterias to consider ... these are accuracy, completeness, and cost ... since no software will be 100% accurate, there will be some human effor involved after conversion... also, there will be some special cases that no automated software can convert properly ... so if I were a DP manager, I would pay no more than half of what we would have spent doing it manually ...
If Matridigm's product is as good as they claimed it to be, there's no doubt in my mind that they are going to make money ... how much? ... you then have to understand the business model they are in, look up all other great growth stories like Netscape ... see how they
manage growth ...in that way, you may not have exact figures but you'll have more realistic expectations ... The best case scenario I have with Matridigm is a 3-year total sales of 100 million ... and based on this, there's no way a 1 billion valuation could be placed in this company right now ...
About Mad Monk, I miss him too, he's the ideal sparring partner ...
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