What will it take?
The way I see it, there are a couple of different scenarios that will help VVUS.
The Big Paydays
1. the big buyout. With stocks at these levels, i wouldn't count on it soon.
2. Viagra is pulled. Again, not something I will bet the farm on.
More probable
1. VVUS takes on a domestic marketing partner. I would not expect this soon. They have just hired their new contracted sales force and I am sure they are going to wait and see if they can be profitable using them. They won't give up on another profit center that easily, although, it could be a loss center.
2. I think this market is so pessimistic about VVUS, it won't take much. The FDA approval may not directly affect the stock price, but indirectly, I think the stock price will benefit tremendously. Here's why. This company is about to enter its second straight losing quarter. At this point, the VVUS bears and the nonparticipants think this company may not even be a going concern. If the company can put earnings back in the black Q3, I think a lot of perceptions will change. With the new margins I hope we will see with the new plant, I think this is very obtainable. According to a couple of sources, the company cannot fully supply its partners overseas. We will see more product available at a lower cost of production. Not too mention, I think we will see many more approvals which means more royalty payments and more sales.
The key dates from here foward:
End of June: do we get FDA approval.
July 9, what is in store for the CC
Q3, can we get positive.
Other than these, we are going to have to do a lot of waiting. We have our usual script numbers, but I am not expecting a whole lot of excitement there. So, patience for us and patients for VVUS (was that a pun?)
Waiting to stimulate my erect posture,
Colby
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