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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread
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To: Rocketman who wrote (5141)6/18/1998 5:42:00 PM
From: Vector1  Read Replies (2) of 9719
 
I thought I would post my thoughts on LGND since the stock has cratered and we own a major position. I don't really follow the LGND thread anymore. I don't have the time to weed throughthe BS.

The company has not done not done much for shareholders recently. That doesn't mean that value has not been created, just that the market has not yet recognized it. Some times the market is just plain wrong. That is how you outperform the market in the long term. I am betting the market has been wrong on a number of biotechs. That being said the street has not been impressed with what LGND has been doing.
The approvals they are currently filed for represent small markets. Fact is these small markets do not justify the share price whether or not they break even or make a few cents a share. Value is created from drugs that have over $100m of sales potential.
The key to LGND's value is Targretin for breast and Prostate cancer. They are starting phase IIs on Breast and already have one going on prostrate. Targretin appears to work synergistically with other therapies and we know that Targretin is well tolerated with very benign side effects. This is unusual in cancer therapy. Most current therapies destroy the immune system. All they have to show is marginal improvement from a non toxic drug and you have a home run. While the rat studies are obviously not conclusive my instincts tell me that Targretin will be effective as part of a cocktail therapy for breast cancer and has the potential to eventually be a $500m drug. Could be more if it they ever run a successful chemoprevention trial. If they are sucessful in the diabetes program we have the makings of a small pharma. That is why I own LGND.
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