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Technology Stocks : C-Cube
CUBE 36.82-0.5%3:59 PM EST

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To: DiViT who wrote (33926)6/18/1998 6:33:00 PM
From: William T. Katz  Read Replies (3) of 50808
 
RE: The bearish perspective

I'm going to stay out of CUBE for hopefully another 2 weeks. While we agree that CUBE will do well later in the year and be an excellent long-term investment, I think there is too much risk in the short-term, particularly with the Asian situation.

I think the efforts to prop up the yen will fail reasonably quickly unless Japan unleashes some fundamental reform, something they haven't been able to do for the last 7 years. If the yen drops, China might devalue.

China has been making signals and I think that they are preparing the way for devaluation when they can "save face" by blaming Japan and US for letting the yen slide like that. Does devaluation hurt CUBE a lot? Maybe not, but as we all know, the stock market doesn't go purely on facts. If China devalues the currency, there will be at least one huge down day in markets all around the world, and if that day occurs, I hope I'm holding a nice % of cash to buy selected holdings like CUBE.

So I guess I see the short-term upside as limited but with some reasonable downside risks. I might nibble a little if CUBE keeps dropping but will keep my main reserve in case of fall [if I can keep my hand off the buy button].
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