Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 252.34

+0.9%

Nov 28 12:59 PM EST

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To: Brad Rogers who wrote (20575)	6/18/1998 8:22:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) of 70976

TXN sold the business on the cheap, with great terms. Shows how desperate they are to get rid of it. Mu gets some time, but if prices don't stabilize within 12 months, it goes over the edge, and takes a good chunk out of TXN in the process. Looks like TXN sold about 1.3 billion in dram in the past 12-15 months. Mu now controls this, therefore prices can stabliize....except for asia dumping. the bottom line is that this improves the capacity equation quite a bit, but there is sooo far to go. But there is no denying we are seeing the type of actions that occur in a trough. My opinion is that this makes it more likely that business turns within 12 months, and more consolidation in asia which is likely to occur, will speed things up even faster. I would stick with the opinion that this summer will be the bottom for stocks, and feel more sure of it, since consolidation is occurring now. The folks I look to for guidance are convinced that logic supply will be tighter by the end of the year, so dram consolidation like this is a very big deal.

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