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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (20704)	6/18/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: robnhood	Read Replies (1) of 94695

All,, Interesting post I think.... <<Gollum (the pictures in my mind) ID#43349: - There was a psychologist one time who put about two dozen test subjects together in a room. He had a picture projected up on to a screen that was completely out of focus. Even though there was no way to tell what it was a picture of, he had them each write down on a piece of paper thier best guess of what it might be. Then he would bring the picture slightly more into focus and have them make another guess. Eventually the picture would become so well into focus that anyone who had been out in the hall all this time could come walking in and easily and immediately see what it was a picture of...but no one in the room knew what they were looking at! The mind is of such a nature that it will form preconcieved ideas of what a situation might be before it has enough evidence to make a completely valid conclusion. Then as more data becomes available it will actually distort it's way of percieving things so as to fit it's preconcieved notions. It will ignore or underplay the significance of non-supporting evidence and exagerate the significance of supporting data. The mind has evolved in this way for millions of years. It is a survival feature. Back in cave man days the guy who took off running as soon as he saw a hint of stripes up in a tree lived longer than the guy who had to go up and feel the claws and see the teeth. But preconcieved ideas can kill a man in combat or break him in trading. The Samurai had a saying that the man least afraid to die would be the one to live. In evaluating markets for the sake of financial gain it is the man least afraid to be wrong who will eventually win all the marbles. The best traders are those who can quickly form an opinion, but just as quickly abandon it if circumstances dictate otherwise.>>> Copied from kitco

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