PA, Per your post: "I was just looking over the DCTC price/volume chart for the last two years. The recent base that we have found around the $2 mark seems to be the most stable and firm support over the last couple years".
Welcome back, haven't seen your name on the BB in a while. I think that you made a good observation concerning the price of DCTC having been the most stable in it's history. Would you like to propose your hypothesis on what you think has changed to cause this?
My own thoughts on this would be 2 fold:
1. First, since we have not been able to break out and stay above the $2.25 level, I believe we still have sizeable positions that want out around that level. Perhaps they are some original .30 shareholders that have just gotten tired of playing the waiting game, or maybe shareholders that got in expecting a run (which would have happened IF the CC selling had not occurred IMO) from last fall when we had "waves" of good news lined up and a higher share price to boot. Whatever it is, there is still some definite resistance around this level. PA, I believe however if you look carefully at your charts, you will also see that the longer we have been above the $2 level, that we have been able to reach the $2 1/4 level on lower and lower volume days for the most part. In other words, it looks to me like our resistance is becoming less with time... but it's still there.
2. As to why we have been able to hold above $2, even on low volume days? There are obviously buyers down around the $2 level.(G) First there are long termers that can't resist adding a few shares when a nice buying opp. presents itself and the definition of a "buying opp." has IMO been moved up to about the $2 level. Last winter we were all "buying opp'd" to death as we dropped to ever lower levels so none of us had any extra $$ to add on dips, now I think some DCI investors are a bit more liquid. Then I believe we also have some people moving into our stock that are entering purely on a technical basis and right now $2 or lower looks like a good entry point. Back when our stock was in fade mode for about 6 months, we looked really awful from a technical standpoint and I believe that this group was essentially out of our stock. Unfortunately, this is probably the same group that will flip out at some higher level and not hold to the end, but I do think nonetheless that this is part of where our buying comes from when we get a bad day.
By either comparing DCTC to other stocks or in comparing DCTC to it's own historical valuations, $2.00 is extremely cheap and I think that fact is beginning to be recognized. Perhaps more importantly, confidence that we are undervalued seems to be building, but it's going to take some time. I think that the stability we are seeing at this level is a good start, a jump to the $2.50 level and the formation of a new higher base would be even better though. (G) I think we have a good chance to see this happen sometime this summer... we shall see...
James |
