Boca research - Reawakening? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Boca research - Reawakening?

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To: VAUGHN ENQUIST who wrote (119)	11/27/1996 4:49:00 PM
From: shanzi_k	of 640

To All who are interested in this company: I performed a cross-sectional statistical analysis on 111 communication companies recently and developed an empirical equation to estimate fair value of each issue. BOCI has a fair value of $27+. After I checked some 20 most undervalued companies in this industry for their fundamentals, read their price chart, and deleted companies with weak spots and/or very negative mass psychology, I found three companies were left. BOCI and MNPI were two of them. I was in this one at $11.25 and MNPI at $8.75. I have realized some gain in MNPI and am waiting for this one to rise. The attached is a list of communication companies that have data necessary for multiple statistical analysis. Remember no company is perfect. The more comparison you do, the better BOCI looks. I posted the complete summary on a new thread named "CHECK WHERE YOUR INVESTMENT STANDS: A SI STOCK SCREE" in SI stock talk's Communications section. I posted a list of some 300+ companies in four industries -- semiconductor, computer, communication, and software, sorted by price-to- -fair value ratio. I hope the summary and the stock list will help you find some gems. See you there. Regards, Shanzi Ke Attachment: (This is a piece of the summary I posted) CHECK WHERE YOUR INVESTMENT STANDS (Continue) Contents 1. INTRODUCTION 2. HYPOTHESIS 3. METHODOLOGY 4. SAMPLE 5. DATA 6. RESULTS 7. CONCLUSION 8. CAVEAT 6.3. Fair Values and Ranking of the Companies in Price- Fair value Ratio Communication Industry SYMBOL PRICE FAIR PF_RATIO EPS96 EPS97 LTGRW PTB $ $ $/$ $/s $/s % $/$ FSCX 9.250 37.83 0.24 0.30 0.60 100 12.4 CMNT 5.500 19.39 0.28 0.19 0.37 20 2.0 MNPI 8.625 25.66 0.34 0.39 0.82 25 1.3 ASFT 6.500 17.13 0.38 0.16 0.17 25 1.4 NWK 14.250 33.51 0.43 1.10 1.33 22 1.5 ZOOM 10.000 22.19 0.45 0.54 0.74 20 2.1 BVSI 12.000 26.13 0.46 0.77 1.07 22 3.0 BOCI 13.000 27.88 0.47 0.99 1.26 23 2.1 CGRM 14.000 28.51 0.49 0.14 1.02 20 1.2 WTT 10.500 21.33 0.49 0.42 0.56 35 11.4 MADGF 9.000 18.21 0.49 0.00 0.32 25 2.1 SFA 14.750 29.64 0.50 0.91 1.20 20 2.2 CAMP 9.250 18.35 0.50 0.25 0.63 28 4.4 DIGI 14.125 28.02 0.50 0.43 1.01 20 1.4 T 36.250 63.41 0.57 3.48 3.68 12 2.9 BAY 19.375 33.82 0.57 1.12 1.32 29 3.3 DGII 17.500 30.27 0.58 1.16 1.53 20 2.0 GEMS 21.375 36.77 0.58 1.10 1.45 30 2.9 CMIC 14.250 24.41 0.58 0.58 0.72 15 1.4 AWRE 12.375 21.07 0.59 0.03 0.12 50 . MCIC 25.500 38.50 0.66 1.73 1.96 13 1.5 BSTN 16.875 23.34 0.72 0.33 0.67 30 7.2 OCTL 24.500 33.33 0.74 1.10 1.40 20 3.5 ERICY 27.750 35.52 0.78 1.07 1.29 20 5.1 ATI 26.000 33.21 0.78 0.34 0.52 33 3.3 XIRC 20.500 25.44 0.81 0.60 1.02 25 6.5 ORTL 20.750 24.49 0.85 0.67 0.89 32 3.5 WCOM 23.500 26.75 0.88 0.97 0.05 20 3.8 PCTL 31.000 34.85 0.89 0.97 1.27 30 4.5 PROX 19.875 21.69 0.92 0.51 0.69 40 6.7 FON 38.500 41.85 0.92 2.93 2.92 12 2.6 NPIX 16.000 16.65 0.96 0.16 0.45 25 2.7 TLDCF 17.125 17.76 0.96 0.61 0.88 20 . NN 31.000 31.64 0.98 1.11 1.40 25 7.6 SHVA 36.750 36.90 1.00 0.76 1.06 48 7.3 CSCO 60.000 58.74 1.02 2.04 2.70 35 15.0 HLIT 20.500 18.62 1.10 0.34 0.58 30 5.1 DLGC 33.000 29.63 1.11 1.24 1.64 26 4.8 CCSC 22.500 20.11 1.12 0.63 0.84 30 12.3 FORE 39.500 34.64 1.14 0.57 0.84 45 9.7 STII 36.000 30.39 1.18 1.19 1.50 25 3.1 CS 61.375 50.34 1.22 3.52 4.56 25 4.9 WSTL 22.875 18.46 1.24 0.02 0.28 35 21.8 QCOM 37.000 29.71 1.25 0.29 1.20 35 2.9 COMS 62.875 48.73 1.29 2.30 2.98 30 11.6 LU 50.000 38.74 1.29 1.67 2.02 20 20.4 TLGD 25.250 18.74 1.35 0.90 1.06 20 5.2 USRX 71.375 50.63 1.41 2.37 3.29 36 11.6 ASPT 55.750 39.14 1.42 1.46 1.89 30 8.7 ASND 61.000 42.34 1.44 1.00 1.48 45 18.0 NOKA 46.500 31.98 1.45 2.05 3.12 20 . ADTN 38.750 25.76 1.50 0.98 1.31 30 9.2 PRMS 48.875 32.06 1.52 0.79 1.03 60 17.0 XYLN 40.750 26.20 1.56 0.30 0.69 55 22.4 NT 62.750 39.52 1.59 2.40 3.00 15 5.1 ADCT 63.000 37.16 1.70 1.33 1.70 28 6.9 CSCC 71.000 40.75 1.74 0.72 1.12 50 . TLAB 79.750 40.31 1.98 1.79 2.25 25 13.1 VSVR 45.750 23.10 1.98 0.74 0.91 40 10.8 DSPC 52.000 25.62 2.03 1.10 1.41 38 19.4 PAIR 71.500 32.15 2.22 0.90 1.24 40 19.2 (to be continued)

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