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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting
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To: Ms. X who wrote (3911)6/19/1998 7:51:00 AM
From: james ball  Read Replies (2) of 34820
 
Tom Dorsey to all I came across an interesting article in the Journal today that points up the need for using the Bullish Percent Indexes when selecting sectors. For months now I have been running in the face of a number of wirehouses we advise concerning the real estate market. Many of them are just now coming out with REIT Investment Trusts. For months now I have been expecting a bull market in real estate and I have been right. I do not say that self servingly but the prices of houses in general have goine up and property I have bought in Florida has risen much more than the stockmarket. Here in lies the problem. A rally in real estate in many eyes should translate into a rally in REIT's. Not so. By looking at the Bullish Percent of the REITS (go to our charts an hit BPREAL you will see that the time to buy was in May of 1995 when it reversed up from below 30%. The time to sell was in December of last year when it reversed down from 84%. Since then the play has been to own the house not the REIT. Wall Street has taken the other tack and that is to push the REIT. There have been numberous articles of late suggesting the fundamental play in REITS might be over. Today in the Journal is another such story. The time to buy them again will be when ????????? You answer it. Tom
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