I don't understand parts of your last post, Robert. Low volume ordinarily does not indicate volatility, does it? It indicates lack of buyers or interest. On the other hand I agree re: >>real news<<
Xoma, it seems to me, is handicapped by a convergence of several macro trends as well as the usual litany of negatives arising from what is perceived as its checkered past and uncertainty of its future.
Macros: Small and mid caps are out of favor. Value investing is out of favor. Biotechs as a group remain out of favor, as they have been for several years. Momentum investing rules the heap and Xoma has had no momentum for quite a while.
Checkered past: Disappointing, unproductive sepsis research for more than two decades. Repeated share dilution. Lack of large fund interest or any analyst following. Disappointment over the failure to strike a deal with a large pharmaceutical. Disappointment over continuation of P-3 trial by DSMB. Fear engendered by Murphy's bail out.
Uncertain future: Skepticism about the potential market and actual economic return to be expected for any BPI compounds on the horizon, even if approved. Impatience over the comparatively long period until possible FDA approval (another year or year and a half?). Worry over possible competition from any number of other very ingenious biotechs in closely related fields. Likelihood of further share dilution to raise needed cash. And # 1, of course, is the possibility of FDA denial.
Against such a daunting mountain of negatives, lack of buyer interest is not only understandable it is evidence of prudence. One may still hold out hope for BPI, Xoma, and the whole gang but IMO it will take "real news" of a dramatic order to move this stock in the current investing climate and under past and present circumstances.
Maybe Xoma should change its name to "Infosite Xoma" or "Yahoo Xoma." Or, how about "Amazon-Dot-Xoma?" "Xomamerica On Line?"
Personally, I have high hopes and low expectations. |
