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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets
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To: see clearly now who wrote (225)6/19/1998 9:06:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar  Read Replies (2) of 3536
 
Arnold

Yes, there is a possibility given the right set of circumstances that
an international monetary crisis could develope from Japans banking
problems combined with Asia's devaluations. Yes, it could effect North
America. But the chances of this are extremely remote, **nothing today**
indictates that this will occur. Since 1945 international financial
balances have been effective in handling any monetary crisis.

But do not forget hyper inflation and deflationary spirals have occurred
in Japan and in europe (Germany) after their wars. Also here in the US in 1929.

The question of Buffets purchase of silver and Soros's purchase of a silver
mine and oil investments with Seven Seas are a fascinating developement.
Especially since they have taken physical control of the metal not just
holding paper rights. Silver is an excellant portfolio hedge within the
context of a financial crisis. Probably better then gold in todays arena.
I believe Buffet purchased the silver to hedge this remote possibility
of international currency instability....as well as it being an undevaluded
commodity with the potential for appreciation. Of course he could not
announce----I bought 20% of a years production of silver, because I believe
our currencies are vulnerable due to debt structures or the Euro dollars
that will devalue the US dollar.

You should visit the Gold Price Monitor thread #reply-4861705 and read
this very extreme article......and then follow the thread. But cast a
jaundice eye towards their slant that gold is the only answer.

Another article by The Sceptical Investor chebucto.ns.ca
which also offers a rational but extreme view. But again, these views
are just one amongst many.

Equally complelling views believe that the world has just entered one
of the greatest periods of productivity and growth ever experienced by
so many in so much of the world. I happen to believe this and that it will
be the driving force of the next 50 years. Expansion of democratic policies
and productivity through out the world.
Read "Prosperity: The coming 20 year Boom" by Davis

I hope these opinions are useful and of some interest.
Chip
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