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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: Joseph G. who wrote (2408)6/19/1998 10:36:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
Impeccable vision, posted on June 13:
<<Everyone fears a Chinese devaluation could deepen the global currency crisis. On Monday and Friday of last week the Chinese stated that they would hold the line on the rimimbi but hinted that they might have to devalue. When you are defending a currency. you never hint that you might devalue. The Chinese have. We must interpret this as a threat to the G-7. Clinton is going to China in two weeks. It appears that the Chinese are applying pressure to the G-7 to stabilize the yen.. The speculative community is massively short the yen. They are convinced tht Japn can do nothing before the elections in late July so there is no near term risk. But the Chinese are threatening that, if the yen keeps falling, they may devalue, possibly just before or after Clinton's visit. Such political considerations may move Rubin to agree to massive coordinated intervention to reverse the decline in the yen, despite his desire to play chicken with the Japanese to get his political wish list. Because the speculators are so short and so complacent before the July elections, it might work. It would work if the Japanese agreed to strong measures after the elections to buy the bad loans from the banking system and to cut taxes on consumer incomes.>>

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