Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 156.00

+0.6%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (5913)	6/19/1998 10:50:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) of 10921

Stabilizing the yen may keep the problems from getting any worse, but they aren't fixed yet either. This is just an opinion, but I don't think any of you get that this measure was just to get the attention of the Japanese government. The intervention on the part of the yen was not to prop up the yen at any given support level, but only to stabilize the currency from its rather steep drop and triggering a devaluation from China. It also signaled that the currency markets clearly did not support the slow progress the Japanese government was making on behalf of its own economy. Don't you get the fact that the Chinese went vocal about the slide, then the US stepped in to intervene after reversing the direction of policy that Rubin testified to only days before? There is nothing external forces can do to stop the slide of the yen vs. the dollar in any meaningful way over the long haul. Soros is going to make yet another fortune betting against the BOJ just like he did when the BOE tried to defend the pound. The meetings with our "heavy hitters" over in Japan right now is a last ditch effort to get the Japanese to make some sort of reform in their financial system before the Japanese elections. [BTW, some of the heavy hitters are Seidman from the S&L crisis in the US and Summers from the Mexican bailout.] This is going to be very bitter medicine, but their last chance. If it doesn't work, we had all better be holding cash, not stocks. Even if it does work, the Japanese semiequipment makers are going to be very significant competition on the next wave of fab building. It is very difficult to deal with a supplier that has a 40-70% price advantage because of recent currency declines no matter what the technology you might be providing. Just my two cents.

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