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Technology Stocks : The Roaring Twenty 1998
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To: Dale Baker who wrote (110)6/19/1998 10:57:00 AM
From: White Shoes   of 338
 
I don't know what somebody's fancy statistics or projections will say, but here's betting that yes, the absolute volume of goods ordered and shipped will increase.

I have a whole theory on that!

To sum it up though it has to do with the heavy incentive for existing businesses and especially new ventures to shift the 'model' in such a way that more people get used to having certain items shipped where they once did not. After all, no shipping, no web selling.

So I expect to see growing acceptance of different ways of buying things. Products will be packaged differently, sellers will attempt to show customers why buying online is better.

If enough potential profit dollars want consumers to change their habits...they often do. Plus, changing those habits might make sense for the consumer, too.

Of course a lot of the hype for specific companies like AMZN will exceed their ability to live up to their great potential. People will tire of always being online, and people will continue to enjoy a nice Sunday drive to the mall or the discount warehouse outlet. And of course I don't think people will entirely lose their need to touch and see the things they are buying in many cases.

But the aftermath will probably be an increased acceptance of shipped goods in some product categories.

As I say it's only a theory. My theory depends on the ability of big business to manipulate the buying public. When AT&T tries to buy out AOL, and Disney buys Infoseek, those involved in internet commerce now definitely represent "big business".

The business cycle does have to be factored in of course. I don't know what recessions do to shipping companies but I expect it's not great.
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