I like PLAB and DPMI, followed by ASYT. The mask makers have not been, and would seem unlikely to be, significantly affected by reduced selling prices for chips and the Asian problems. In fact, they might even be helped by the decreased chip prices. If decreased chip prices "encourage" chip manufacturers to develop new chips that can be manufactured at a lower cost, this will result in the need for more new mask sets since each new version of a chip will generally need a completely new set of masks. In last quarters earnings reports (PLAB = $0.30/share and DPMI = $0.50/share (diluted, after extraordinary items), these two companies as well as MASK ($0.34/share) all said that they had not been negatively affected by the goings on in the rest of the chip industry. Of PLAB and DPMI, I think that I favor DPMI since their year-year growth was significantly greater than DPMI (and, suprisingly, MASK had a growth rate even higher than PLAB). An additional trend that should benefit these companies is that more and more semi manufacturers are contracting out for masks, rather than designing them in-house.
I like ASYT since they have a virtual monopoly in SMIF (see various posts by A. Vance), and their technology significantly decreases the cost of chip manufacturing.
I find ETEC very tempting. However, I am slightly more wary of them because of potential competition on the horizon (UTEK, Leica (I think), and I think there is also a Japanese company in this area). Presently they have a very strong technology and are the dominant player in this area (probably in a position equivalent to that of AMAT in front end equipment).
I do not find KLIC particularly compelling at this level since I have no idea how much excess capacity presently exists in the assembly area. |
