Tim,
Hard to figure exactly what is going on with stock... here is my guess... got three research reports from Seattle based IR woman hired by company... talked about several things, like costs for opening the new offices in Texas, Atlanta, Idaho will be all weighing down Q2... not much growth in remainder of 1998, but certainly setting up the stages of next year's growth
Jeffries brokerage thought overpaid for Rancho Vista... 2q97 was 17 cents and 2q98 is expected to be 20 cents, leaving under 20% growth q/q for a stock that used to be >100% time after time... q3 comparisons no better... continued plans to sell portions of portfolio to finance both new office costs and very large bonuses for attracting new executives to lead these new offices, bonuses of $200k each person... made argument that BCom is takeover target for either 25 or 27
Did not like what I read, but was favorable for 1999... three dead qtrs in row coming... might have had something to do with stock pukishness lately... was not impressed with rally when dow was up 200, no follow thru... so moved much of my money into another favorite of mine... I did get caught with a minor loss
Tim, here is my favorite of favorites... video software game company which does some devmt, but mainly is an organizer, distributor, contractor, promoter, and publisher of games... named THQ with symbol "THQI"... made a ton of money on them in 1997 despite Asia... big earnings growth of >80-100% per year in last two years and it is not abating... turnaround since 1996 much like BCom... likely to earn close to $2.50-3.00 this year but price of stock is 27 now... trailingPE of 15, getting more respect lately... leader of class is Electronic Arts (ERTS) with lame earnings and big advertisement budgets and pe of 40!!! ... THQ has two top ten games now and a slew of new offerings coming down the pike... friend owns 20,000 shares avg cost 13... I have ridden them from 11 to now, got off before it went down in April, now back on... THQ will be over 40 in Jan99, which is 50% up
I moved much of my money from BCom to THQ today since THQ pulled back and had some very big news in the last couple weeks... earnings coming midJuly for Q2... THQ usually beats estimates by 3/2 ratio... I sensed an imminent huge breakout coming in next few months
goodluck with BCom, takeovers can be long in coming, 1999 will be great... maybe I am wrong, dunno
/ Jim Willie |
