Maybe Cappiello? Of all the people who appear on WSW, he's my favorite analyst, however I did a study (with Bob Jennings, Indiana University, published in the Review of Financial Economics, 1997) that shows that the informativeness of the show (which I happen to love)is not real good as far as things like investment picks is concerned.
Back to the front: I just got done listening to a couple of analysts (one of them for Warburg-Pincus I believe) talking about the situation vis-a-vis Japan. It was every bit as grim as I've been saying. The key points:
(1) The financial services sector, which is where most of the problems are, is TWICE as big as the manufacturing sector left in Japan (I was unaware of that.)
(2) As far as the near-term slide in the yen is concerned, barring a massive restructuring/reform program in Japan, the only way to stop the slide is to (a) lower interest rates in the US or (b) raise them in Japan. (b) is out of the question, it will destroy the banks. Alan Greenspan is most reluctant to do (a) since he has a US economy to deal with that is characterized by strong growth with record low unemployment and growing wage pressure. Were it not for Asia, he would most likely have raised rates by now.
(3) As far as the massive restructuring is concerned, these guys see no possibility of it until the Japanese economy is practically destroyed. In fact, they think that the Japanese are actually hiding the real extent of the damage to their system in a massive cover up, and believe that the Hashimoto government is determined to try and "muddle through it."
The bottom line here folks is that here in Asia, many are battening down the hatches in preparation for the economic destruction of Japan. I don't know how much you want to plow into semiconductor stocks, at whatever price, until there is some signs of resolution to this dilemma. I have been a subscriber to Infrastructure for some time now, and while they continually mention SE Asian problems, I really don't think they understand the depths of the problems there. Right now they are talking about capitulation in semi equities and saying things like "there is finally consensus that there is a recession in Japan" - like mere recognition is an end to the bad news there. I don't think they understand at all the potential of what's building there, or what it means to everyone else in the region. I'm tempted to write Carl Johnson and have him take a look at my posts. It probably wouldn't do any good.
jess. |
