Karin,
If one looks at the insider trading against the daily charts there are a couple of conclusions one could make.
1.TDFX insiders are NOT wizards when it comes to buy low/sell high.
(One sale above 30 and the remainder generally in the low 20s. Having complete "inside" info seems to have little to no bearing on where the stock is headed in the short term.)
2.There is no correlation between insider sales and the share value on the day of the sale or the days immediately following the sale. (I imagine that insider sales information spreads among the market makers/analysts a lot faster, i.e., instantly, than it does to any of us and it seemingly doesn't make any difference to the market makers/analysts).
There has always been an intuitive belief that insider trading has bearing on the share value of an issue...It's seems so....intuitive. But I also believe that it has been statistically shown that there is rarely a correlation between insider trading and share value and this particular sampling of TDFX seems to support that notion.
An intuitive argument that seems valid to me is: if I was an insider and I believed that the company had no future prospects for share holder value....seems like I'd dump all my holdings..not less than 10%.
As a matter of personal policy, I don't recommend whether persons should buy or sell, but I don't believe that any of the insider sales should have a bearing on that decision. Personnally, I'm holding because I believe that the analysts are wrong in their prediction of the growth of the market (it will be higher) and TDFX's position in that market (a sound dominance). I also don't average down because I could be wrong and I never bet all the chips on one company, especially a small cap. 15% of portfolio is about my limit for a small cap.
Best Regards,
Jim
P.S. To: TDFX Insiders: Having carefully looked at the insider activity for TDFX...if anyone wants to "gift" some TDFX shares, my e-mail address is published on SI. <g> |
