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Strategies & Market Trends : Book: Hit And Run Trading by Jeff Cooper

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To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (353)6/20/1998 10:33:00 AM
From: Robert Graham  Read Replies (1) of 438
 
Do not expect either of Jeff Cooper's books to replace experience. I think this is what many are thinking when they go and purchase a book that they think will provide them a instant recipe to success. What a terribly artificial view of reality some newbies have to the market. I remember coming across one "trader" who had paper traded the setups in a very careless way not following the rules and showing a gross lack of discapline and even expierience. He came to the determination that Copper's system does not work. No surprise here. What did not work here was the trader themselves, not the system. Success has much to do with the trader themselves including the very important element of discapline which I find many do not have who have been attracted by this impressive bull market.

Also IMO what Jeff Cooper provides are setups which is different than a more complete system. Both the setups and their development into a system may require some work to suite the needs of a specific trader. This means that in order to benefit from his system, it will be important if you have experience with trading in the market, and experience with the development of systems would prove to be very helpful. Otherwise expect to go through a learning curve in developing the system that works for you where you will encounter failures before arriving at success. I do not think many looking for the recipe to success are willing to put this kind of effort out. So I do believe that Jeff Cooper's setups will not work for many if not most of the aspiring traders looking to profit in the stock market.

Anyone who has access to Jim Cramer's TSC can look up the independant review done on Jeff Cooper's setups by Gary Smith who is an experienced trader and who has experience developing his own systems to the market. He has found at least a 50% success rate with the 5-day momentum method, and if I remember correctly, a 65% success rate with the setups covered in his "Hit and Run Trading" book. I do not have any stats like maximum drawdown and average loss and average gain and so forth. But based on the discussion of Cooper's systems by Gary Smith in his articles and a look at his books, I think any good and experienced trader can profit from either one of Jeff Cooper's approaches to the market. A good trader can profit with a good system that has a 50% success rate and can even profit from a system with a 35% success rate even though using such a system with such a low success rate would be much more difficult over time. For that matter, a poor trader can be wiped out by a system that has a very high success rate of 80%.

So the bottom line is that I would not recommend Jeff Cooper's approach to the market to any newbie. This is not to say there will not be some newbies that derive success from his setups. But IMO the chances are against this from happening, and as the type of stocks change that this approach is applied to and as the market itself changes, and then there is the lack of experience the newbie has in following a system with discapline, in time the newbie is likely to meet with failure and become frustrated and give up. Hopefully the newbie in this situation will give up before all of his money is gone.

Just my opinion.

Bob Graham
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