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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 142.62+2.2%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Jess Beltz who wrote (5933)6/20/1998 11:31:00 AM
From: Joseph Beltran  Read Replies (3) of 10921
 
Jess,

It seems to me that while the japanese economy may indeed be headed for a "capitulation" of sorts, technology in general and the chip industry in particular will manage to survive, albeit with different players. The world is not going back to the stone age. The technology revolution and the wave of productivity enhancements which it has brought to the world will continue. The entire world needs to be networked and while the road to that outcome may be bumpy at times, the outcome itself remains inevitable. Japan may not remain a big player as that process evolves but I suspect that other countries will emerge soon enough and step up to take its place. In this period of high competition for capital resources governments cannot go on indefinitely subsidizing their high tech industries (read as selling below cost). Nor can those tech companies afford to fall behind in capital expenditures for productivity, technological, or quality improvements. Lastly, as Japan (among others) is showing us, these countries (and their companies) cannot operate indefinitely in a non-transparent financial environment because the capital "players' in the world will not tolerate it. These are just a few of the lessons which I am beginning to perceive as this situation unfolds..

regards
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