Anyone want my put on Y2K?
Sorry, but its not an alarmist's view, and the sky isn't going to fall. Every system I built, influenced, dealt with for the last 10 years was reviewed to assure that it utilized a four digit date code. The few that didn't were generally older programs that were scheduled for replacement, yupgrading or elimination. The few that did use a 2 digit date field and did have some problems were fixed.
Everything from the chipset in the numerical control systems to minisupercomputer Operating Systems were tested for compliance. Corporate wide we found 2 boards that needed replacing. We replaced them in 1 day by calling the vendor, who had plenty in stock.
So where is the real problem? Will your ATM crap out? No. Will Oil tankers stop dead in the water? No. Will hospitals cease to function. Nope. Will the planes fall out of the sky or be unable to land. Afraid not. Anyone familiar with air traffic control knows that the backup systems are both triple redundent and supported with manual overrides.
There will be some problems. But they won't be catastrophic, and yes, they will be global. What will happen is that places that do automated phone support will have to hire a ton of temps to handle phone calls and process paperwork if they aren't fixed (so plan on buying stocks like JOB), and if that isnt efficient for the customers, then their customer base will drop off.
If you want to make some real money, don't buy the PeopleSofts and other big consulting firms hyping the need - short them on December 30, 1999. The problem isnt a problem at all. It is a reprogramming effort that is actually quite simple to detect and fix. I realize that this topic is and has been and will be the media hype du jour for awhile. But I would like you to think about how the things would work, or what the back up or contingency plans are when things like the power goes out.
And not to cast any aspersions to any Senator or Congressman or other elected official, but I wouldn't worry a whole lot about the accuracy of their information. I know a few Senators and Congressmen. I testified before a Joint session of Congress in '84. So here is the kindest way I can put it - If Joe Copia, or Jenna or Walter High or John Kim says we have a problem, I'll start finding out where and why and how and what to do. But if someione in Washington DC is talking about it, my guess is that whichever Big Six Accounting firm who needs more business that is bankrolling his next election is probably behind it. Or the duly elected official needs the media coverage.
And one more thing. It isn't a 'bug'. A bug is a problem with the program. The 2 digit date field was used becasue no programmer in their right mind figured their stuff would be around for more than three years at most. Most of the programs that need updating are over 10 years old. And if some IS manager licensed a program that used a two year date field in the last decade, and hasn't addressed it yet, then that company probably probably isn't on any screen we run...it has bigger problems.
last(climbing down from soapbox)shadow |
