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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options
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To: donald sew who wrote (46411)6/21/1998 3:28:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery  Read Replies (1) of 58727
 
Hi Donald;

I've been watching this round top on the S&P for a while now. The last few days I've been trying to put it into some kind of formula in an excel sheet.

I've been working with simple moving averages and have been looking at the rate of change of slope of the averages.

Some small info at this time:

For the current Bull market the 200 day average went from - to + on 1/12/95 and has not yet reverted.

The 50 day has turned south 2 or three times before for very short periods.

The 20 day .. quite a few times .. but:

On 5/28 the 20 day crossed the 50 day.
On 6/12 the 50 day went south .. the 50 day simple moving average for the S&P500 is now negative.

If the slope of these two were to stay the same the 50 would cross the 200 on 10/23 and the 200 would turn south 12/24.

These dates are off .. The slope will not stay the same .. When I figure out more I'll post it.

Thats a long time to wait for the S&P to hit the 200 day average.

And that is the problem with the current rate of change in the slopes of these averages.

Every other time that the S&P has hit the 200 day, the line has been strongly sloped up .. Most of the time that the 200 day has been hit the 50 day has still been positive. Now we are at a time where the 50day slope is negative and we still have 100 points to go to hit the 200 day line.

I don't think that it has been a trading range, but rather a channel that is curved. And we have just crested the top of the hill. Take a look at the 50day line and you'll see what I mean.

Now .. having said all of that the entire pattern could still, possibly, be a base pattern for one hell of a run up. But, at this time, I don't think so.

I think what we are in for is a long slow downward trend that could last for a long time. Little gains from puts .. loss for longs .. God help the buy on dips ..

That kind of market would have to be shorted .. you know .. upside down buy and hold .. short and hold.

Anyway .. FWIW .. WTHDIK .. get the kids off the sidewalks .. and all of the other disclaimers.

Gersh
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