Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 142.62

+2.2%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (5942)	6/21/1998 10:15:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) of 10921

One difference in Japan and US/Chrysler and US/RTC comparison. Both bailouts (the RTC certainly an expensive one) involved putting the business on a sound financial basis by dramatic restructuring. In the case of the RTC, that involved closing the doors of an enormous number of institutions. The comparison in fact might be valid -- in facy, your plan might be close to what eventually happens -- IF Japan insists that the responsible banks go out of business!! Japan certainly has the money to bail out its banks. The Postal Savings reserves are over $1 trillion. But this wipes out the savings of millions of older Japanese citizens. Why would you do that, if the banks were going to get into the same fix in the future? This isn't just money. A Japanese minister who participated in the wasting of the country's savings would have to commit suicide. The Japanese may lack the political willpower to fix its financial mess, but they aren't stupid. The Postal Savings are their safety net. If they tried to tap it, without real change in the banking sector, the Japanese people would rebel. You would have to think that there would be run on the Postal Savings fund. So, given the near political impossibility of a Japanese gov't killing (or radically reforming, including firing their buddies from) a couple of big banks and paying off the depositers, and the realistic impossibility of massive cash infusions without reform, what can they do? I think they are frozen in the headlights. Things in Japan are just going to have to keep getting worse until the people eventually speak at the ballot box.

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