T,
I believe that you are correct with your belief that DELL cannot keep up their level of growth as it currently stands, as they become a 'bigger' player, at some time it would be impossible to maintain that 30% growth or so. ie - To go from 100,000 units to 130,000 units is one thing, but to go from 1,000,000 to 1,300,000 is another! I believe that most of the people that follow the DELL thread would also see the impossibility of the continued growth at a 30% compounded. The question is at what rate does it drop off? Is it 30% this year, and 29% next year? Or is it 30% this year and .005% next year! It is my belief that one has to look at the 'overall' picture of DELLs performance in relation to anothers performance. ie - If the PC market in general shows 'no profit', yet DELL shows a meager (5%) profit, then DELL is where I would want to be in order to maximize my investment.
OK, I'll go with you on the lower wafer starts being attributed to the lower demand, but the lower demand might be attributed to the 'wait and see what is coming' attitude on the consumers part. There is a lot of 'hype' in the various publications about the new and improved hardware that is just on the horizon, DVD for one, Video Phone - another. I have no indication that the lower number of wafer starts is a 'dip' (seasonal) or a 'trend' (extended) at the present time. It is easy to take either side of the argument, and one will be either 100% correct of 100% incorrect! If I were sure that the market were heading 'south', I would be out of the market and selling 'short' to the 'max'! If I were sure that the market was to continue up, I would be 'mortgaging' everything and 'leveraged' to the 'max'. Either of those positions seem to be a bit 'much' for 'my' investment 'style'. I guess that I am in kind of the 'middle' - 'with a twist'. I can buy, sell and hold a stock without a tax liability since I trade in my IRA accounts. This way when 'I' feel the market is about to go 'south', I go to 'cash', and when 'I' feel the market is about to go 'north', I go to stock. If the market is 'meandering' (as it is now), I kinda' hold, or in general 'get confused', make a little, lose a little, hopefully make more that lose!
Any way, I use this SI thread to watch my favorite stocks, and listen to the various positions that the posters have taken, and their discussions as to why they believe it to be the correct position. I try not to 'attack' any others position, and certainly not to offend one for having taken that position. If a discussion convinces me that I, perhaps, have 'gone the wrong way', I will be the first to change direction. After all, 'Show Me The Money' is what it is all about. Currently DELL, among others, has been 'showing the GREEN'!
Regards,
Ken |
