Joe,
I don't recall for sure when earnings are due out, but I think someone here said it was in July.
My speculation is that the ANCR sell off was due to the loss of the IBM deal. (If that indeed ends up being true.) I think it is logical to assume that word leaked out to somebody that the storage division of IBM was going with Brocade, and they decided to sell. (Ancor may not have known about the decision at that point, and they may not know even now.) The reason I think this is that the volume spike two weeks ago Thursday was HUGE, relative to the prior trading sessions. That fact can't easily be explained away by margin calls, etc. Take a look at a chart of ANCR that shows the volume, and you will see what I mean. Another distinct possibility is that IBM itself started to unload some of its own shares.
I'm not sure anyone really expected a great quarter anyway, although it certainly should be better than Q1. The lack of any substantive announcements during the quarter should mean that Ancor is looking at yet another lackluster performance. The Japan problem certainly doesn't help, and brings into question Hucom's long term ability to keep Ancor afloat, especially if revenues from other sources slip to 1999.
There is going to be a very tiny window for Ancor to survive without another round of financing, even with Hucom. Without Hucom, there is no way that I can see to avoid it. In fact, I'll go on record as saying that no matter what, I think Ancor will require another round of financing of some sort. The continued cash burn, coupled with the lack of significant revenues that approach the break even point, make this almost a foregone conclusion.
I agree that Ancor desperately needs to quickly ramp revenues in their existing business, sign an OEM for 1999, or simply sell the company. If the rumors we are hearing are true about Brocade and/or Vixel/Arcxel getting additional OEM deals, things might get worse for Ancor before they get better. I don't know if the naysayers will admit it, but these deals should prove that we were right about Fibre Channel. Unfortunately, THEY may have been right about ANCR. Management has stated that they believe that Ancor will get their share, and they might. However, zero is not a share. <g>
Craig |
