MSB, here's another "Good News, Bad News" scenario, in a way!
The following is a repost from the PKD Board on YAHOO. This fellow has been quite accurate with his recent analysis (going back several months) and seems to have quite a following on YAHOO. The "good news" is he is predicting that the worst is over for the energy segment but the "bad news" is he obviously believes the overall market is about to tank. Apparently, he is taking a leave of absence from posting to message posts and this is his farewell post.
>>DOW 6000 By Year End:
by KhalidRKhan/Jun 21 1998
___All sectors of the market will fall like dominoes:
...i) Energy sector first to go, drillers and crude oil price both down interestingly 35% YTD, least downside risk left of all sectors.
...ii) Semiconductors sector, next casualty, other techs soon to follow.
...iii) Banks/Financials will fall, true impact of bad Asian
loans/japanese impending bank failures soon to be felt by the market.
...iv) Retailers will fall...
...v) Auto Makers will fall, low demand from Asia/Japan, Cheap imports
real threat.
...vi) Drugs. "Drugs? You say, everyone needs drugs." Yeah, everyone
needs oil too.
...vii) Transports. Asia already impacting FDX, NWAC, UAL and others.
UNP down in the dumps as well. Any Dow Theorist will tell you that
Transports always lead the market decline.
II.____Reason why Energy sector was first to fall and has least
downside:
...i) Unlike other sectors, Energy sector has a bench mark (price of
crude oil) that it can use to correct market expectations, this
eliminates downside surprises. Stock prices fall with the crude oil
prices, hence the enemy is in the open. Other sectors, like the semis,
transports, etc., there is no way of knowing about the order
cancellations, etc. till the earnings time. July is when all the sectors
will start their downtrend as earnings are released.
III.___This was my last post at PKD and other boards. I've made my point and there is really very little left to say. When people comment that PKD is the best board at Yahoo, they are not kidding. My frequent
criticisms have drawn very little fire, this just shows how mature
PKDers are. Good luck to you all and may God bless you.<<
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