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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth

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To: Joseph G. who wrote (2453)6/21/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
You are right that my gains so far have been trading gains.

Some countries may not honor basic committments. Not just defaulting on loan agreements.

If and when such a country does this when it is dependent on exports it would be committing economic suicide. I think the probability is low unless there is significant civil unrest, i.e. civil war or some kind.

In real terms perhaps some of these countries will not come back in 10 to 20 years, but when you look at not only how far the markets have collapsed and the currency exchanges rates which have also cratered, I find it highly unlikely that there is going to be another implosion in equity prices of the same magnitude at this point from the standpoint of the dollar.

Individual US stocks have a nozero prob. of becoming worthless (I have a buddy who bought Morris Knudsen a few years back), the risk with a collection of stocks is much less, even in another country.

Have you been investing long enough to have bought one of the US bear markets?
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