Ron, very interesting reading indeed. One thing missing that I was looking for was the attitude of the Central Asian governments themselves to the possibility of Russian troops along their borders with Iran. The dictator of Belarus, who recently locked the gates to their diplomatic enclave, is openly seeking reunion with Russia to recreate the old Soviet empire. Do the moderate Iranians foresee the emergence of a new Soviet Union along their border?
What surprises me is the financial condition of Saudi Arabia. Their oil costs should be very low along with a relatively small population. It sounds to me like a long history of financial mismanagement has gotten them into a bind. The article refers to money for the various factions to spread around. One of those places Saudi money has gone is support for the Palestinians. Another concern is pressure from religious fundamentalists.
If Saddam is replaced with a moderate, sane, competent leader and if Saudi Arabia chooses to ally itself with Iran instead of us, and if oil prices remain low as more regions begin exporting, why should the American taxpayer maintain a large force in the Gulf? All we need to do is to make an occasional goodwill call. One reason given for not completing the job of invading Iraq in 1991 was that the US didn't want Iraq to be dismembered into Kurd, Sunni, and Shiite countries. They wanted an intact Iraq as a buffer against Syria and Iran. So I am a little surprised by the reference to the US "intrigued by the idea of dismembering Iraq". Shows that American policies are subject to twists and turns as are those of the Middle East.
It is the interest of the USA to maintain low oil prices, being a large net consumer rather than producer of oil. Therefore, it is in the USA's interest to open up the Central Asian fields to exploitation, contrary to possible thinking of some in Saudi Arabia and Iran. Iran would like pipelines from Central Asia to traverse Iran, but that would leave them at the mercy and whim of Iran which would not be wise for obvious reasons.
Russia would like pipelines to go through Russia and have the oil be taken by tanker though the Bosporus and Dardenelles. Turkey opposes that because it would load the heavily traveled Straits with more shipping that, in the event of an accident, would load its waters with crude. Russia has been behind the intransigence of Saddam and the Serbs for reasons of tradition if nothing else, and is not an ally we can trust. Therefore it seems to me that Turkey is our own best bet to back in the events foreseen by your article. Turkey has made a defense pact with Israel to the irritation of some of its neighbors. Both Turkey and Israel need the USA and Turkey is becoming more important to us. Therefore we will support Turkey's policy of pipelines from Central Asia.
I was a little glad to see Iran beat us playing soccer. It seems clear young people of Iran do not harbor hatred of the USA. Back in the eighties, I worked with a fine young engineer from Iran who was a big support to me.
Charles |
