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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options
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To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (46538)6/22/1998 3:54:00 PM
From: Nancy  Read Replies (3) of 58727
 
lisa,

from prelim checking on the trin-5 performance - i have to say it is not very reliable and the start day of counting seems to make a difference. i will imagine if one starts the 5 day cumulative from a turning point - either a rally or a swoon, probably make more sense and improve the predictability value. since you have all the trin data - would you do a little back test, say start your trin-5 on naz from the day it closed at 1715 06/15 and see what happen.

if you tabulate a spreadsheet with a rolling trin-5 you probably will see a better pattern emerge, that is why a backtest is important, although not necessary need to be a 10 years like TT would prefer. :)
however, a backtest cover the whole 1997 till now might yield some more meaningful info.
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