Some information on the future of natural gas:
The Potential for Natural Gas
Research cutbacks are coming at a time when natural gas use is projected to grow significantly in the U.S. energy market.
Traditionally its most important use has been in the residential sector (where it supplies nearly half of all energy consumption),
but in the future, natural gas is projected to increase its contribution in other energy sectors, most notably in the electric power
generation and transportation markets. In fact, the Energy Information Administration forecasts that domestic natural gas
consumption will increase by one-third over the next 20 years. About half of this increase will be to fuel electric power plants.
For the full potential of domestic natural gas to be realized, consumers must be confident that long-term supplies are adequate
and affordable. Particularly in the electric utility market, where decisions are based on 30 year-plus plant life expectancies, the
long-term future of natural gas reserves must be assured. Technology will largely determine whether or not these assurances can
be given.
For example, in February 1995, the U.S. Geological Survey doubled its estimates of the nation's onshore inferred natural gas
reserves (from 114 trillion cubic feet in 1995 to 232 trillion cubic feet in 1996). The reason for this increase was largely
attributed to the rates of technological progress applied to exploration, drilling, and production. In the future, a significantly
greater share of U.S. natural gas production will have to come from frontier supply sources, e.g., dense formations in the West
and deeper gas formations both on- and offshore. In these formations, gas production will be much more sensitive to the rate of
technology improvement than in the past.
In other words, for U.S. consumers (especially utilities) to have sufficient confidence to make the 30-year or more investments
in new gas applications (like turbine and fuel cell-based power plants) that can expand the use of natural gas in the United
States, R&D investments must be made today to assure adequate gas supplies in the 2010-2050 timeframe.
Privately-sponsored R&D is not focusing on this long-range time horizon.
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