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Technology Stocks : ADSL, ISDN, and the future.
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From: Michael Ohlendorf4/7/1996 3:16:00 PM
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I would just like to add some points to the discussion from a European perspective:

The European Union Telecom standardization bodies have worked very hard to establish EURO-ISDN as the new fast telecommunication standard in the EU. Before each member state made trials with its own ISDN derivative. In Germany, the Deutsche Telekom (http://www.dtag.de/) has a special introductory offer for private clients which like to switch to ISDN. The demand is strong, however not as strong as the Telekom expected mainly due to the high costs involved in purchasing new telephone equipment - the connection costs and monthly basic fees as well as the ISDN tarifs are affordable. The Telekom expects that in two years the majority of their customers will have switched to ISDN. When the Telekom people talk about the future the word of choice is ATM. And according to their opinion ATM technology is not the near future. Germany, is the country with the most private ISDN connections in the world. In other European Member States it will take several more years until all homes have an ISDN connection. The European Union standardization committees have not worked hard on EURO-ISDN and have not subventioned it with Millions of $ without a reason. They want to sell this common European standard to the world especially to South-East Asia like they already did it successfully with GSM which seems to outperform the American standards in these economically fast growing regions of the world.

In this current European technological and political scenario I presently see no place for ASDL. With regard to the future the decision already seems to be made in favor of ATM (the Deutsche Telekom and other major European Telcos are currently testing it). My question is: Is the American market and current demand big enough to let ADSL win the game ?

Your comments appreciated,

Michael Ohlendorf
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