Outerwall (OUTR), formerly Coinstar (CSTR) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Outerwall (OUTR), formerly Coinstar (CSTR)

OUTR 52.00

0.0%

Sep 28 5:00 PM EST

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To: Jon Coert who wrote (174)	6/22/1998 9:02:00 PM
From: SlateColt	of 351

Why? Convenience... I'm a big pundit of using credit cards for everything also. However, I still amass mounds of change as does everyone. Instead of looking at in terms of machines and revs/machine, lets look at the theoretorical limit (US only) of revenues. Lets do some quick math. Using your $100/yr estimate with, lets say, 200 million people in the US. That gives us $20 billion in coins. If everyone turned in their coins at a Coinstar machine for a 7.5% fee, we have a total of $1.5 billion. Big number... Obviously, parts of the equation are wrong: 1) % of persons using machines will not be 100% and 2) market coverage is less than 100%. ---------- market coverage ---------- Usage 25% 50% 75% 100% 1% $3.75 $7.50 $11.25 $15.00 2% $7.50 $15.00 $22.50 $30.00 5% $18.75 $37.50 $56.25 $75.00 10% $37.50 $75.00 $112.50 $150.00 20% $75.00 $150.0 $225.00 $300.00 (in millions) Questions are: 1) What is their current market coverage? Planned? 2) What usage percentage is accurate? Can that even be measured? Is that reflected in "same store sales" increases? 3) How much can Europe be expected to contribute? EU and new currency seems like a huge market. But, is it a one time shot? 4) Would banks ever be interested in installing self-service machines for the public to use? Just some random thoughts... I maintain a small position in the stock and have added some more recently due to the oversold condition...

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